PPolySim OS

Value at Risk (VaR)

How bad could a bad day get? Value at Risk answers with a single number — the loss your portfolio should not exceed at a chosen confidence level.

Value at Risk (VaR)Live

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Presets

Value at Risk estimates the loss a portfolio will not exceed over a horizon at a confidence level. Parametric VaR assumes normally distributed returns and scales volatility by √time. Expected shortfall (CVaR) is the average loss in the tail beyond VaR. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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Data Inspector

VaR (95%)$20,446
Expected shortfall$25,708
Horizon vol1.26%

Governing equation

Reading this result: At 95% confidence the loss should not exceed 2.0% of the portfolio over 1 day; the average loss in the worse tail beyond that (expected shortfall) is steeper still.

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How it works

Parametric VaR assumes returns are normally distributed and scales volatility by the square root of time. At 95% confidence, the VaR is the loss exceeded only 5% of the time; expected shortfall (CVaR) averages the losses beyond it. Both are core to risk management and regulation. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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Frequently asked questions

Is this value at risk calculator tool really free?
Yes. Value at Risk (VaR) runs entirely in your browser using your device's own compute, so local use is free forever. You only pay Compute Tokens if you scale a job to the cloud.
Do I need to install anything?
No. Everything runs client-side in a modern browser — no downloads, no license, no account required to start.
Can I save or share my simulation?
Create a free account to save projects, and use a shareable embed or minted DOI to publish a live, interactive version anywhere.
How accurate are the results?
The solver uses established numerical methods, but results are for research and educational purposes and should be validated against experiment or professional review before you rely on them.