For Educators · Bayesian Inference
Bayesian Inference for a poll margin
Built for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs. Simulate a poll margin live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.
Bayesian InferenceLive
prior × likelihood → posterior
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Bayesian inference updates a prior belief with data to form a posterior. For a coin, a Beta prior combined with binomial coin flips gives a Beta posterior — the conjugate update is just adding heads to α and tails to β. Watch the posterior sharpen and shift as evidence accumulates.
Data Inspector
Posterior mean0.667
Posterior SD0.094
Posterior α, β16.0, 8.0
Governing equation
Reading this result: The posterior mean 0.667 sits between the prior mean 0.500 and the observed rate 0.700; with 20 flips versus 4.0 pseudo-counts, the data dominates and pulls the estimate toward the evidence.
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Frequently asked questions
- Is this good for educators?
- Yes — this version of "Bayesian Inference for a poll margin" is framed for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs.
- Do I need to install anything?
- No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.