Bayesian Workbench for a time-series forecast
Built for students learning it for a class or exam. See the concept move instead of memorizing formulas — and check your homework intuition. Simulate a time-series forecast live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.
Controls
Presets
Bayesian inference updates a prior belief with data to form a posterior. For a coin, a Beta prior combined with binomial coin flips gives a Beta posterior — the conjugate update is just adding heads to α and tails to β. Watch the posterior sharpen and shift as evidence accumulates.
Data Inspector
Governing equation
Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.
Controls
Presets
Geometric Brownian motion models a price with constant drift and random volatility — the assumption behind Black-Scholes. Running hundreds of simulated paths reveals the full distribution of outcomes, not just an average. Educational tool, not investment advice.
Data Inspector
Governing equation
Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.
Controls
Presets
The bootstrap estimates uncertainty by resampling your data with replacement thousands of times and recomputing the statistic each time. The spread of those bootstrap means gives a confidence interval — no formula or normality assumption required. Powerful when the math is intractable.
Data Inspector
Governing equation
Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.
More with Bayesian Workbench
Frequently asked questions
- Is this good for students?
- Yes — this version of "Bayesian Workbench for a time-series forecast" is framed for students learning it for a class or exam. See the concept move instead of memorizing formulas — and check your homework intuition.
- Do I need to install anything?
- No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.