Is this good for educators?

Yes — this version of "Kelly Criterion for a Monte-Carlo forecast" is framed for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs.

Do I need to install anything?

No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.

For Educators · Kelly Criterion

Kelly Criterion for a Monte-Carlo forecast

Built for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs. Simulate a Monte-Carlo forecast live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.

Kelly CriterionLive

the mathematically optimal bet size

Controls

Presets

Win probability p

Win/loss payoff ratio b

The Kelly criterion gives the bet fraction that maximizes long-run growth: f = (bp − q)/b. Bet less and you grow slower; bet more and volatility eventually ruins you. Many practitioners use a fraction of Kelly to tame the swings. Educational tool, not financial advice.

▶ Run in Python

Data Inspector

Kelly fraction10.0%

Edge (bp − q)0.100

Half-Kelly (safer)5.0%

Governing equation

f^{*} = \frac{b p - q}{b} = \frac{( 1 ) ( 0.55 ) - 0.45}{1} = 0.100

Reading this result: Kelly stakes 10.0% of your bankroll per bet — the fraction that maximizes long-run growth; betting more raises volatility without raising growth, and eventually courts ruin.

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Frequently asked questions

Is this good for educators?: Yes — this version of "Kelly Criterion for a Monte-Carlo forecast" is framed for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs.
Do I need to install anything?: No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.