For Hobbyists & Makers · Kelly Criterion
Kelly Criterion for a risk model
Built for hobbyists & makers exploring it for fun. Play with real physics and math, no license and no setup — just open and tinker. Simulate a risk model live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.
Kelly CriterionLive
the mathematically optimal bet size
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The Kelly criterion gives the bet fraction that maximizes long-run growth: f = (bp − q)/b. Bet less and you grow slower; bet more and volatility eventually ruins you. Many practitioners use a fraction of Kelly to tame the swings. Educational tool, not financial advice.
Data Inspector
Kelly fraction10.0%
Edge (bp − q)0.100
Half-Kelly (safer)5.0%
Governing equation
Reading this result: Kelly stakes 10.0% of your bankroll per bet — the fraction that maximizes long-run growth; betting more raises volatility without raising growth, and eventually courts ruin.
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Frequently asked questions
- Is this good for hobbyists & makers?
- Yes — this version of "Kelly Criterion for a risk model" is framed for hobbyists & makers exploring it for fun. Play with real physics and math, no license and no setup — just open and tinker.
- Do I need to install anything?
- No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.