Is this good for educators?

Yes — this version of "Pythagorean Expectation for a cricket bowl" is framed for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs.

Do I need to install anything?

No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.

For Educators · Pythagorean Expectation

Pythagorean Expectation for a cricket bowl

Built for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs. Simulate a cricket bowl live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.

Pythagorean ExpectationLive

wins from points

Controls

Presets

Points/runs scored

Points/runs allowed

Bill James discovered that a team's win percentage tracks the ratio of points scored to points allowed, raised to a sport-specific exponent — the Pythagorean expectation. It predicts records better than actual wins early in a season, exposing teams that are lucky or unlucky and due to regress. The exponent varies from ~1.8 in baseball to ~14 in basketball.

▶ Run in Python

Data Inspector

Expected win %53.2%

Projected wins86 of 162

Exponent1.83

Governing equation

Win% = \frac{75 0 ^{1.83}}{75 0 ^{1.83} + 70 0 ^{1.83}} = 53.2%

Reading this result: A near-even scoring ratio lands close to .500 (53.2%); with an exponent of 1.83, Baseball win % swings sharply once the ratio tilts.

Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.

or unlock everything with Pro →

Also for:Students Researchers Engineers Hobbyists & Makers K-12 Students First Responders General version →

More with Pythagorean Expectation

Pythagorean Expectation for a basketball free throw Pythagorean Expectation for a soccer penalty Pythagorean Expectation for a baseball pitch Pythagorean Expectation for a golf putt Pythagorean Expectation for a tennis serve Pythagorean Expectation for a football field goal Pythagorean Expectation for a sprint race Pythagorean Expectation for a marathon pace

Frequently asked questions

Is this good for educators?: Yes — this version of "Pythagorean Expectation for a cricket bowl" is framed for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs.
Do I need to install anything?: No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.