Do I need to install anything?

No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.

For Students · Value at Risk

Value at Risk for a dollar-cost-average plan

Built for students learning it for a class or exam. See the concept move instead of memorizing formulas — and check your homework intuition. Simulate a dollar-cost-average plan live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.

Value at Risk (VaR)Live

parametric VaR & expected shortfall

Controls

Presets

Portfolio value ($)

Annual volatility

Annual return

Horizon (days)

Value at Risk estimates the loss a portfolio will not exceed over a horizon at a confidence level. Parametric VaR assumes normally distributed returns and scales volatility by √time. Expected shortfall (CVaR) is the average loss in the tail beyond VaR. Educational tool, not investment advice.

▶ Run in Python

Data Inspector

VaR (95%)$20,446

Expected shortfall$25,708

Horizon vol1.26%

Governing equation

VaR_{95%} = z σ - μ = 1.64 \times 0.0126 - 0.0003 = 0.0204

Reading this result: At 95% confidence the loss should not exceed 2.0% of the portfolio over 1 day; the average loss in the worse tail beyond that (expected shortfall) is steeper still.

Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.

or unlock everything with Pro →

Also for:Researchers Educators Engineers Hobbyists & Makers K-12 Students First Responders General version →

More with Value at Risk

Value at Risk for a stock option Value at Risk for a retirement fund Value at Risk for a mortgage Value at Risk for a bond ladder Value at Risk for a crypto portfolio Value at Risk for an index fund Value at Risk for a savings plan Value at Risk for a startup valuation

Frequently asked questions

Is this good for students?: Yes — this version of "Value at Risk for a dollar-cost-average plan" is framed for students learning it for a class or exam. See the concept move instead of memorizing formulas — and check your homework intuition.
Do I need to install anything?: No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.