For Hobbyists & Makers · Win Probability
Win Probability for a cycling time trial
Built for hobbyists & makers exploring it for fun. Play with real physics and math, no license and no setup — just open and tinker. Simulate a cycling time trial live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.
Live Win ProbabilityLive
the odds in real time
Controls
Presets
Win probability turns the score and clock into a live percentage. Early on, even a big lead is fragile because plenty of scoring remains; late in the game, the same lead is nearly safe because the uncertainty has shrunk. Modeling the remaining margin as a shrinking random variable produces the classic curve that broadcasts now show on screen.
Data Inspector
Win probability82.5%
Lead+5
Time left10 min
Governing equation
Reading this result: A 5-point lead is still soft with 10 min on the clock — plenty of scoring remains, keeping win probability near 83%.
Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.
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Frequently asked questions
- Is this good for hobbyists & makers?
- Yes — this version of "Win Probability for a cycling time trial" is framed for hobbyists & makers exploring it for fun. Play with real physics and math, no license and no setup — just open and tinker.
- Do I need to install anything?
- No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.