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For Engineers · Expected Goals (xG)

Expected Goals (xG) for a cycling time trial

Built for engineers using it for real design work. Go from concept to a running model in the browser, then scale to the cloud when needed. Simulate a cycling time trial live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.

Expected Goals (xG)Live

the quality of a chance

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Expected goals rates every shot by the probability an average player would score from that spot, learned from thousands of historical shots. The two biggest drivers are distance and angle to goal — a tap-in near the six-yard box is worth 0.8 xG, a long-range effort barely 0.03. Summing xG over a match reveals who truly deserved to win, beyond the scoreline. Click to place a shot.

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Data Inspector

Expected goals0.22

Distance30 m

Angle to goal24°

Ratingdecent

Governing equation

xG = \frac{1}{1 + e ^{- (0.6 - 0.11 \cdot 30.0 + 0.06 \cdot 23.5)}} = 0.22

Reading this result: Long range dominates here: distance shrinks xG faster than anything else, so this is a low-probability effort.

Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.

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Frequently asked questions

Is this good for engineers?: Yes — this version of "Expected Goals (xG) for a cycling time trial" is framed for engineers using it for real design work. Go from concept to a running model in the browser, then scale to the cloud when needed.
Do I need to install anything?: No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.