Is this good for educators?

Yes — this version of "Expected Goals (xG) for a baseball pitch" is framed for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs.

Do I need to install anything?

No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.

For Educators · Expected Goals (xG)

Expected Goals (xG) for a baseball pitch

Built for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs. Simulate a baseball pitch live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.

Expected Goals (xG)Live

the quality of a chance

Controls

Expected goals rates every shot by the probability an average player would score from that spot, learned from thousands of historical shots. The two biggest drivers are distance and angle to goal — a tap-in near the six-yard box is worth 0.8 xG, a long-range effort barely 0.03. Summing xG over a match reveals who truly deserved to win, beyond the scoreline. Click to place a shot.

▶ Run in Python

Data Inspector

Expected goals0.22

Distance30 m

Angle to goal24°

Ratingdecent

Governing equation

xG = \frac{1}{1 + e ^{- (0.6 - 0.11 \cdot 30.0 + 0.06 \cdot 23.5)}} = 0.22

Reading this result: Long range dominates here: distance shrinks xG faster than anything else, so this is a low-probability effort.

Runs locally in your browser — free forever. Scale to the cloud when reality gets heavy.

or unlock everything with Pro →

Also for:Students Researchers Engineers Hobbyists & Makers K-12 Students First Responders General version →

More with Expected Goals (xG)

Expected Goals (xG) for a basketball free throw Expected Goals (xG) for a soccer penalty Expected Goals (xG) for a golf putt Expected Goals (xG) for a tennis serve Expected Goals (xG) for a football field goal Expected Goals (xG) for a sprint race Expected Goals (xG) for a marathon pace Expected Goals (xG) for a cycling time trial

Frequently asked questions

Is this good for educators?: Yes — this version of "Expected Goals (xG) for a baseball pitch" is framed for educators teaching it to a class. Drop a live demo into a lecture or assign it as a shareable link — no lab installs.
Do I need to install anything?: No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.