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For K-12 Students · Expected Goals (xG)

Expected Goals (xG) for a baseball pitch

Built for k-12 students learning it in middle or high school. Watch the idea come alive with plain-language steps and everyday examples — perfect for projects and homework. Simulate a baseball pitch live below — adjust the inputs and watch it respond, right in your browser.

Expected Goals (xG)Live

the quality of a chance

Controls

Expected goals rates every shot by the probability an average player would score from that spot, learned from thousands of historical shots. The two biggest drivers are distance and angle to goal — a tap-in near the six-yard box is worth 0.8 xG, a long-range effort barely 0.03. Summing xG over a match reveals who truly deserved to win, beyond the scoreline. Click to place a shot.

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Data Inspector

Expected goals0.22

Distance30 m

Angle to goal24°

Ratingdecent

Governing equation

xG = \frac{1}{1 + e ^{- (0.6 - 0.11 \cdot 30.0 + 0.06 \cdot 23.5)}} = 0.22

Reading this result: Long range dominates here: distance shrinks xG faster than anything else, so this is a low-probability effort.

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Frequently asked questions

Is this good for k-12 students?: Yes — this version of "Expected Goals (xG) for a baseball pitch" is framed for k-12 students learning it in middle or high school. Watch the idea come alive with plain-language steps and everyday examples — perfect for projects and homework.
Do I need to install anything?: No. It runs in any modern browser, free, with no account required.